Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
