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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still